| Spectacular boom in Russia |
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Prospects for a sharp upturn in the global economy commodity prices, and go after them Russian shares. Although the Russian economy is in deep recession, the main indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange gained since the beginning of more than 120 percent., A correction in June and July, more than 70 percent. Against this background, the impression does not even rise of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index by 62 percent. from the beginning of the year, which many analysts consider to be the beginning of a new bubble. Moreover, the last days have brought spectacular rise in Moscow, even as the current bull market conditions. Since the beginning of last week's RTS index jumped 18 percent. and only one session ended on the handles. On Wednesday, once again gained more than 3 percent. Russia is seen as a leading supplier of raw materials for the global economy - explains "parquet" Christopher Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib in Moscow. This meant that when in 2008 the global economy fell into recession and demand for raw materials declined, holding in Russia's restatement was much deeper than elsewhere. In the second half of 2008, RTS - where more than 50 percent. contribution to oil and gas companies - has lost 74 percent., most of the stock market indices. When spring came the first signs of stabilizing market conditions and commodity prices started to go up, RTS also rapidly rebounded. Played a major role in the China, which increased imports of industrial metals. - It is primarily the U.S. the Russian economy and the stock market - but argues Weafer. - Expenditure stimulation Washington on the one hand stimulated the U.S. economy and the optimism associated with the positive influenced the prices of raw materials, on the other hand, resulted in a budget deficit, which hit the dollar. Depreciation of U.S. currency stardom turn denominated price of oil in it - argues. But this is not the oil companies triggered the Russian index up. Because their profits are heavily taxed, their shares are performing worse than the RTS. - Thanks to the Russian budget, however, received about 23 billion dollars more than the government assumed in January. It softened the fear of the collapse of the Russian economy and the banking sector - Points Weafer. As a result, recorded a spectacular rise in shares of companies that could most benefit from improving market conditions (Sberbank shares have gained 370 percent., A supermarket chain Magnit 277 percent).. also highly values metallurgical companies. - Valuation of shares in Russia is dangerously high. I assume that the world will be a very rapid recovery. If this does not happen, Moscow, waiting for deep correction - Uralsib strategist warns. Petroleum expensive since first time since Lehman September 15 last year price per barrel of WTI crude oil grade on Wednesday broke the psychological barrier of $ 75. For the rise in black gold, which continues intermittently since February, there are two factors. Investors are counting on the rapid recovery in the global economy, which will increase demand for oil. Do not mind this fact that if the demand is still weak and the big oil stocks. The situation in the market for this raw material is also a mirror reflection of the progressive depreciation of the U.S. currency. Yesterday the dollar against six currencies basket dived to its lowest level in 14 months. |
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